ChatGPT, one example of Generative Artificial Intelligence, is more than a "disruptor" of the current status quo. And Generative AI will likely be the catalyst for a brand-new industry or industries.
As a designer of experiential learning programs, I recognize the risks associated with the misuse of AI. Plagiarism, cheating, and bad actors made smarter. BUT: I don't think anyone can avoid ChatGPT and its family of AI tools. It is not just a future vision of learning; it's already here. And we are still trying to figure out the disruption arc of AI in the next twelve months, let alone the next five to ten years.
On Nvidia's Q4 fiscal 2023 earnings call last week, CEO Jensen Huang called ChatGPT an "inflection point" in computing technology that will have effects as far-reaching as Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL) 2007 release of the iPhone.
During the earnings call, Huang explained Generative AI's ability to speak and interpret natural language and translate that natural human language into something far more complex.
Specifically, Huang was referring to software code. In reference to ChatGPT's runaway success, he said: The world now realizes that human language is a perfectly good computer programming language, and that we've democratized computer programming for everyone, almost anyone who could explain, in human language, a task to be performed.
ChatGPT is the commoditization of software as we know it.
This is an incredible insight that goes far beyond the oversimplified "Microsoft is going to kill Google Search" argument that has been making its rounds on the news and in the investment community. According to Huang, Generative AI isn't just a disruptor; it's going to help lay the foundation for a new digital economy that can turn anyone into a writer of software.
We know developing software is an incredibly complex task, typically requiring knowledge of at least one, possibly several, types of software languages to write and compile lines of code.
Advances have been made in "low-code" or "no-code" software with which users can create simple apps -- for example, a website using a service such as Wix.com (NASDAQ: WIX). But low-code and no-code platforms are typically simpler than developing a full-blown application, which requires a team of skilled engineers and developers.
But with the advent of generative AI, anyone could bring into existence some code by explaining to a chatbot like ChatGPT what they want a piece of software to do. This is perhaps an oversimplified explanation of what ChatGPT and similar services are currently capable of doing right now. Nevertheless, tutorials are popping up all over the internet that show how someone with minimal experience in software development can start creating their own digital work.
The sky's the limit from here. For countless non-tech businesses around the world that felt unprepared for a new digital era, software development could now be "democratized" (that is to say, commoditized -- no longer a specialized skill dominated by a select few) as Generative AI is hastened into being by ChatGPT.
A new version of ChatGPT, dubbed GPT-4, will probably arrive this year. We have yet to see a firm release date. The New York Times has suggested it could arrive as soon as the first quarter of this year. Since we're in March, that would place the launch in a matter of weeks.
With technology moving so quickly, it might feel like the AI revolution could arrive at any time, bringing disruptive change to many industries and upsetting the balance of capitalism as jobs are replaced by AI.
In light of recent breakthroughs, Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) almost seems inevitable. See the definition below.
OpenAI made it clear in a recent blog post that the company won't rush any product releases before thorough testing, stating, "As our systems get closer to Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), we are becoming increasingly cautious with the creation and deployment of our models."
Microsoft states that the new Bing, or Bing Chat, is more powerful than ChatGPT. Since OpenAI's chat uses GPT-3.5, there is an implication that Bing Chat could be using GPT-4 or a derivative of GPT-4.
Bing Chat can access current information via the internet, a considerable improvement over ChatGPT, which can only draw from the training it received through 2021.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman acknowledges the potential of AGI to wreak havoc on world economies and expresses that a quick rollout of several small changes is better than a shocking advancement that provides little opportunity for the world to adapt to the changes.
With GPT-4, billions of parameters adjust the output of ChatGPT's simulated neurons to achieve the desired result. The enormous amount of detail helps a computer come closer to the interconnectedness of a human brain, which also contains billions of neurons. OpenAI hasn't confirmed any details about GPT-4 but does acknowledge that it is in progress. Rumors, however, are plentiful. As far back as August 2021, Wired reported that industry experts speculated that GPT-4 would feature 100 trillion parameters.
Other rumors suggest better computer code generation and the ability to generate images and text from the same chat interface. An AI that can generate video is also expected. Handling text, images, and video is known as a multimodal model.
Suppose even 10% of the rumors about GPT-4 are true. In that case, we'll all be using a tool with more cerebral power than anything in history.
The inflection curve Jensen Huang mentioned will look a lot like a hockey stick.
Definition of Artificial General Intelligence courtesy of ChatGPT:
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to the hypothetical development of a machine or computer system that possesses the cognitive abilities and intelligence of a human being. Unlike narrow AI, which is designed to perform specific tasks or functions, AGI is capable of understanding and performing a wide range of intellectual tasks that humans are capable of, including problem-solving, reasoning, decision-making, learning, and adapting to new situations.
AGI is sometimes referred to as "strong AI" or "full AI" because it is designed to be capable of general intelligence that is on par with human intelligence. AGI systems would be capable of carrying out tasks that require abstract thinking, creativity, and intuition, and would be able to learn from experience and adapt to new situations.
While AGI is still largely in the realm of science fiction, there is ongoing research and development in the field of AI with the goal of creating increasingly advanced systems that are capable of more complex and sophisticated forms of intelligence. However, the development of AGI is a challenging and complex task that requires advances in a wide range of fields, including computer science, cognitive psychology, neuroscience, and philosophy.